Mental Models

Mental models are a frameworks and concepts from all the major subjects: statistics, math, psychology, biology, programming, business etc. By installing different "models" into my mind, the better I'll be able to understand the world and see the world through different lenses. I see this as "being well educated."

For each model, I'll provide a brief explanation of each and link to a more in-depth article explaining the concept. This initial list will a random jumble. But as I accumulate more, I'll organize them into different categories:

If any of these explanations are wrong, please, please tell me. I'd rather be wrong than have a misunderstanding. 

1. Systems Thinking: The idea here is that rather than make 1000's of little decisions everyday, by turning these decisions into a system, I can free my mind from the cognitive overload of too many decisions. By thinking systematically, I no longer need to worry about what I have to do next, but rather, I can focus on the I'm on, trusting that the well-built system will progress me to the optimal next step.  

2. The Law of Reciprocity: This is the concept in psychology, where giving someone a gift, will increase the likelihood of the receiver returning the favor. The idea is applicable in relationships & marketing, where helping a friend makes it more likely they'll help me return(of course, don't expect it!). Or from a business perspective, giving away a ton of value to a potential customer will increase the likelihood of them making a purchase.

3. Social Proof: I recently got a first-person view of the power of social proof. The idea of social proof, is that if I see a ton of people wanting a specific thing, then I'm more likely to want it myself. For example, when looking for a job, once I get one offer, my value immediately increases with all the other companies I'm speaking with. Another example, in a social setting, if I was the life of the party, with tons of people surrounding and engaging with me, it immediately increases my social capital with all the strangers there. They're thinking who is this popular person? He must be worth talking to. 

4. The Pareto Principle: 80/20 Rule: The idea behind the 80/20 rule is that 80% of the results come from 20% of the work. More formally, 80% of the effects, come from 20% of the causes. The origin of this idea came from Vincent Pareto where he discovered that 80% of the land in Italy, was owned by 20% of the people. Of course, the exact percentage doesn't always hold up, but the application of this idea is to focus on the important, high-ROI things in life. Applies to relationships, money, work, happiness etc.

5. Bayes Theorem: Bayes Theorem comes from statistics. Take the probability of event A happening and adjust it based on new information. I like to use the thought experiment of a dude at a bar. You're a guy at a bar and you see a cute girl and want to go talk to her. There's a specific probability there that she likes you. However, after a minute, you see that she smiles at you. Based on this new information, you adjust that probability that she likes you. 

6. If-Then Statements: A programming concept that's fairly straight forward. If X occurs then we execute Y. The application to life is similar to Bayes Theorem, but rather than thinking probabilistically, this is more deterministic. For example, if I jump off a cliff, I will probably die. Or one with a more positive and applicable tone, for waking up to my alarm, I'd practice hearing my alarm and then getting out of bed 30+ times to ingrain the "if I hear my alarm, I'll get out of bed", rather than hit my snooze button. 

7.  Multi-Arm Bandits: A statistics concept popular in the marketing world, a multi-arm bandit is best explained by the casino slot machine thought experiment. You walk into a casino and see 5 different slot machines. You don't know how the slot machines perform, but you're there to make as much money as possible. You start by giving each slot machine an equal amount of pulls. You start noticing that slot machine A tends to make you more money, so you gradually shift your strategy from equal pulls for each machine, to more pulls on slot machine A, to maximize your money. I find this model extremely applicable whenever I'm trying to manage my time, energy, relationships. I have two hours of free time, should I spend my time coding, writing, hanging with friends, going on dates etc.? Which one will have the best ROI for my goals + happiness? 

8. A/B Split Testing: Another concept from statistics, popular in the marketing world. The idea here, is to experiment with two versions of something and adopting the version that performs significantly better. For example, let's say I'm running a website and I want to test the click-through rate on different versions of the website. So I run an experiment, testing the new version against the old version of the website and then seeing if the new version performs statistically better than the control with a hypothesis test. Great way of testing whether certain additions to my life actually make a difference. 

9. Expected Value:  A concept I used a lot playing poker. At the poker table, when I have a specific hand, such as AA I have a certain probability I'm going to win the hand. Multiply this by my expected payout, then I get my expected value. I find this model extremely useful for looking at two different choices and analyzing which choice would give me the best ROI. A great example is deciding which job I should go with, a job with lower pay but much more learning or a job with higher pay, but less learning. 

10. Agile: A popular methodology @ startups/software engineering. The idea is to build the product as quickly as possible, an MVP, and then iterate upon that based on feedback.  Super applicable to work, in any field. For example, great writers often give the advice of writing "shitty first drafts", just to get the ideas out there, and then editing is where the "real" writing happens. Or when building a statistical model, rather than build a model with perfectly tuned features, build a dumb model that runs and then gradually tune up the accuracy. My guess, is that this is where that Facebook motto: "done is better than perfect" comes from. 

11. Cross-Validation: A statistics concept popular in machine learning, where I "train" a model by feeding it a certain amount of data, but not all of the data. Then I run that model on data it hasn't seen yet and see how well the model performs. I find this model applicable to skill development. When I'm learning a skill, I'm training myslef to be better at performing that skill. But I don't train just to train, I train to use that skill for a certain part of my life. Basketball players practice their shot and then seeing how well they perform in a game. 

12. Compound Interest: A model from finance/money, where an investment of $10,000 today, earning an average rate of return of 12%, will equate to $2,890,000 in 50 years. I find this concept, not only applies to money, but many other areas of life. Focusing improving myself 1% per day, after 72 days, I'll have doubled my initial improvement and over a year, I'll have 38X'ed my improvement. Of course, for the intangible, it's not quantitatively measurable. 

13. Natural Selection: A concept coined by Darwin, which I'm guessing, most people already know. To explain it for myself, where those with the "fittest" genes end up passing on their genes and surviving. Those with "unfit" genes do not pass their genes and do not end up surviving. This resulting in the evolution of a species, best fit for the changing environment. I do think this model can be dangerously misinterpreted, for example, Hitler justifying his extermination of Jews with the Aryan genetic superiority argument. 

14. Activation Energy: Activation energy is a concept from chemistry, meaning the minimum amount of energy to start a chemical reaction. Often times, I don't "feel" like doing something, like working out, but I force myself to do it and once I hit a certain point, I no longer need to deplete my willpower to keep going. Or sometimes when I'm not feeling social, I'll force myself to be social, knowing that once I've hit that activation threshold, talking to people will be effortless. 

15. Confirmation Bias: An idea from psychology, where we tend to seek evidence that confirms our beliefs while ignoring disconfirming evidence. Scientists use the scientific method and try to use data to specifically weed out this tendency to confirm. Confirmation bias can be positive, especially when I set specific goals. Once the goal is set, confirmation bias allows me to start seeing a bunch of things in the world that help get me closer towards my goal. 

16. The Scientific Method: I'm not going to go into detail on each step of this method, but what I love about it is it provides a systematic way of testing my own beliefs, identifying bugs in my own thinking process/understanding of the world. Many times, I'll find that a belief was installed there with no evidence which means it makes sense to change that belief. For example, there was one time I thought that doing 1000 pushups in a workout was impossible. I tested that belief and found evidence that yes, many people have done 1000 pushups in a workout( not in a row). So I tested it myself and I found that belief was wrong and 1000 pushups wasn't too difficult( am I bragging? Maybe). 

17. Yes And: This is a concept from improv. In the context of improv, whenever I'm on stage going through a skit, I must always agree with my environment: yes and...... For example, if I'm doing a skit off the word "poop", and my partner is pretending he sh...I mean pooped his pants and I decide to become an airplane, I am not agreeing to the environment. Yes and is where I agree that he's pooping and then I pretend that the sh..... I mean poop smells so bad that I'm drowning in the putrid smell. In the real world, I think "Yes And" applies to always accepting and not rejecting the environment surrounding me and flowing with the environment. 

18. Melody/Harmony: From my 10 years of piano playing, where the right hand was the melody and the left hand was the harmony. Playing the melody without the harmony can still be catchy, but it's still incomplete. Playing the harmony without the melody, is too bland. Playing both melody & harmony, even one beat out of sync sounds terrible. Playing both, at the right tempo creates beautiful music. I find that this applies to a ton of things outside of music like being in sync in a conversation, a strong relationship, teamwork etc. 

19. Supply/Demand Curve: Understanding Supply/Demand applies to anything that relates to types of "markets." For those who don't know, supply/demand is an economic theory that allocates resources as efficiently as possible, based on the quantity of product produced & the degree people want that product. I enjoy applying this concept to dating markets, as places like SF, with high guy/girl ratio, increases competition between men for attractive women. On the other hand, a place like NY which has more girls than guys, could be the opposite( I don't know though, since I've never lived in NYC). 

20. Funnel Analysis: A term I first heard about in marketing & sales, where a customer passes through a number of "stages" in the funnel, until finally reaching the end: becoming a paying customer. This reminds of a castle that puts up a gate, a moat, security guards, all barriers outsiders must get past to get inside the castle. From a practical perspective, I've found this model useful when looking for a job, where I need to pass through a number of barriers( interviews) to eventually get the offer. Dating as well, where both the man and the woman need to survive through at least a few dates to start developing a relationship. The Art of Charm podcast has a great use of this model, called Social Circle Sales Funnel.

21. 40-70 Rule: Colin Powell, former US Security Advisor, created this rule when making decisions. With any decision, I should have at least 40% of the information needed to make a decision and less than 70% of the information. If I make a decision at less than 40%, I'm not making an informed decision and am likely to make a ton of mistakes. On the other hand, if I have more than 70% of the information, I'm likely spending too much time gathering an information and by the time I have more than 70, the opportunity will have already passed. 

23. Career Capital Theory: A framework popularized by Cal Newport, in his great book So Good They Can't Ignore you, on how to think about my career. Newport challenges the idea of "following your passion" and instead, argues that the qualities of an amazing job come from developing a set of rare and valuable skills. This set of rare and valuable skills is called career capital. Instead of "following your passion", focus on building skills that are rare and valuable, increase my store of career capital. By mastering some craft, I can then, exchange this capital for the attributes of the perfect work situation. Market theory applied to careers. 

24. Quantum Thought: Nick Szabo coined the term while he was in law school. The quantum thought model applies when thinking about an issue. Rather than just assume my default viewpoint, I run down arguments on both sides of the issue assuming both viewpoints were true. Hold down both arguments weighing the probabilities of both these viewpoints being correct. 

25. Margin of Safety: I learned this model from Warren Buffet. Margin of error is an investing concept where an investor only purchases a security when the price of the security is well below its intrinsic value. This difference is called "Margin of Safety." To incorporate this model in other areas of my life, I see it useful in any activity where I want to create some "wiggle room" for mistakes. 

26. Newton's First Law of Motion: I learned this model from Ed Latimore, however this isn't a new concept. Newton's first law is a concept in physics, where things in motion tend to stay in motion. While things that stay still, tend to stay still. How does this apply to our lives? When we sit still, we'll gradually tend to feel lazier and not want to move. We trick ourselves into thinking we're "tired." On the other hand, once you start moving, you'll likely stay in that state of motion. You get more energy from movement, which explains why I feel more energized after workouts. The trick here, is that when I feel "tired", I can override this by deliberately making movements. 

27. Occam's Razor: Occam's Razor basically says that when we have two competing explanations, the correct answer, on average, is the simpler solution. However, it's important not to get it confused with over-simplified solutions. 

28. The Map is Not the Territory: The map is not the territory means that any book, course, theory, model we have of the world is not a full, 100% representation of reality. Anything that claims to be a framework or map will over-simplify reality by default. It's impossible to have something represent reality as 100%. As a result, we'll always have to use frameworks, rules & models but remember that there are always specific nuances & exceptions. 

29. Design Thinking: Building upon the scientific method, design thinking is a model for understanding human problems and finding solutions. First, you empathize with your users/market. Second, you figure out what their biggest problems/needs are. Third, you ideate by coming up with ideas & test immediate assumptions. Fourth, prototype by creating your own solutions. Fifth, test these solutions & gauge feedback. Repeat. 

Of course, there are flaws in these models, and I can't extrapolate certain parts of a model to the real world or I risk over-simplifying reality. I think a solution to this is collecting a wide-variety of models, so I have many different frameworks to look at a situation and I can deduce where the model falls short. I do think critically thinking about where the models fail is just as important as putting in the effort to use the model, as mistaking the model for reality is using only a hammer, thinking every problem is a nail. 

But so far, these have been the models I've used the most in my life. Of course, there are an infinite amount of models, but the idea here is to record the most useful( 80/20 rule) models for my life and by articulating them, it'll help me remember them better. I'll also have a central place to review them and I'll continue adding to this list as new ones come up.